Bitcoin ETP Outflows Flip One-Year Flows Negative, K33 Warns

TLDR

• K33 said rolling one-year bitcoin investment vehicle flows turned negative for the first time since Nov. 4, 2023.
• One-year notional flows stood at -1,176 BTC as of June 18.
• Global bitcoin ETPs now hold 1,466,029 BTC, down 127,774 BTC from their peak.
• K33 said the 8% drawdown marks the largest relative decline it has tracked.
• Average daily outflows slowed to 625 BTC over two weeks from 4,462 BTC between May 11 and June 5.

Bitcoin fund demand has weakened as redemptions grew. K33 said rolling one-year flows turned negative for the first time since November 2023. Bitcoin traded below $62,000 after a 6% weekly drop.

Bitcoin ETP outflows drag annual demand below zero

K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said one-year notional flows reached -1,176 BTC on June 18. The reading covered bitcoin investment vehicles, including exchange-traded products and futures exchange-traded funds.

The firm last recorded a negative one-year flow reading on Nov. 4, 2023. K33 said the latest move followed sustained withdrawals from global bitcoin ETPs.

Lunde compared the move with the previous bear market, when flows first turned negative on Oct. 21, 2022. Bitcoin later found a market bottom weeks after that earlier reading.

However, Lunde said the two periods had different fund structures. “There are, of course, some differences between the two periods,” he said.

He said 2020 and 2021 flows centered heavily on Grayscale’s closed-end GBTC product. That structure pushed GBTC into a NAV discount instead of direct withdrawals.

K33 said global Bitcoin ETPs now hold 1,466,029 BTC. That total sits 127,774 BTC below the peak, an 8% drawdown.

Lunde said the latest drawdown marks the largest relative and notional withdrawal K33 has tracked. He said the data suggests “broad capitulation among ETP investors.”

Bitcoin stabilizes as selling pressure eases

K33 said outflows have slowed over the past two weeks. Average daily withdrawals dropped to 625 BTC from 4,462 BTC between May 11 and June 5.

The firm said the slower pace helped bitcoin steady after heavier selling in May and June. Still, K33 said flows remained broadly negative.

Lunde said ETPs kept 92% of peak asset exposure from October 2025. Bitcoin has fallen 50% in dollar terms since then.

He also said Bitcoin dropped 60% against the QQQ index over the same period. The comparison showed weaker performance against large technology stocks.

K33 said spot Bitcoin activity also weakened. Average daily volume fell to $1.99 billion, the third-lowest level of the past year.

“The result is a fragile balance with few committed sellers and few committed buyers,” Lunde said. He added that volatility may rise once market conviction returns.

K33 also pointed to pressure in Strategy’s preferred-share complex. STRC fell below $90 last week, while annual dividend obligations reached about $1.7 billion.